Driver Based Forecasting

Simulate Events | Shift Projections | Predict Outcomes

Build realistic forecasting models that can handle the events-driven, uncertain, and tangled dynamics of business forecasting

Forecast Evolution

Use predefined curves with various shapes (e.g. Natural Growth S-Curve) and durations to accurately model the evolution of a situation

  • Simulate new product demand with natural diffusions curves
  • Determine the effect of uncertain spikes with varying magnitudes
  • Distribute future activity levels and costs over a period of time
  • Model market shifts due to new trends or expected competition

Anticipate Disruptions

Identify critical paths, dependencies, and potential risks that may arise from delays or changes.

  • Assess the impact of a future event based on its expected timeline
  • Anticipate the effect of chains of events like supply chain disruptions
  • Create multiple scenarios with different time lines and magnitudes of events
  • Model how side-effects multiply or diminish over time

Handle Timelines

Estimate a range of possible outcomes based on uncertain dates and durations of different projections.

  • Shift the whole projection forward or backward based on events’ dates
  • Vary projection durations to determine the effect of delays and extensions
  • Chain multiple projections by calculating start dates based on end dates of other projections
  • Run sensitivity analysis on action plans based on varying activity dates and duration

Compose Projections

Sync start dates and durations, combine multiple timelines, or weave together a sequence of events.

  • Consolidate the projections of a hierarchy of related elements
  • Synchronize multiple projections with correlated growth assumptions
  • Combine different evolution profiles to generate new ones
  • Switch from one forecast to another based dynamics conditions

Driver Based Forecasting is fully integrated with other powerful capabilities for a holistic approach to future-proofing your decisions

Forecasting Decision Outcomes

One of the key benefits of using driver-based forecasting is that it allows businesses to better understand the underlying factors that impact their performance. By breaking down things like revenue and expenses into their component drivers, businesses can gain greater insight into what is driving their financial results. This can help them identify areas where they can improve efficiency, reduce costs, or increase revenue.

Driver-based forecasting also helps businesses to be more proactive in their decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods rely heavily on historical data and tend to be reactive in nature. They are based on the assumption that past performance will continue into the future. However, this approach can be problematic in fast-changing markets or when external factors like the economy or regulatory environment are in flux.

In contrast, driver-based forecasting takes into account the dynamic nature of business conditions. By analyzing key drivers like sales volume, pricing, and production costs, businesses can create more accurate and reliable forecasts that reflect the changing market conditions they face. This allows them to be more proactive in adjusting their strategies and resource allocation to meet changing conditions.

Another important benefit of driver-based forecasting is its ability to support scenario planning. By creating forecasts based on different scenarios, businesses can better understand the potential impact of different decisions or changes in the market. This can help them make more informed decisions about investments, resource allocation, and risk management.

Vireton Foresight is a collaborative, infinitely flexible, and insightful

Decision Analysis Software